Mid-February Roster Analysis: Winnipeg Blue Bombers Defensive Line

In part 4 of 6, we take a look at the Blue Bombers defensive line.

In 2013, the Blue Bombers defensive line had some dominant efforts, and some forgettable ones.  They finished up with 51 sacks, 15 of them by Alex Hall, who was traded late in the season to Saskatchewan. Other than Hall, the Blue Bombers did not feature any notable edge rushers.  What is notable about this group is the pass rush generated by the interior, in particular Bryant Turner and Zach Anderson.  They each finished with 7 sacks.

Let's take a look at who the Bombers have under contract at this point (as of February 28, 2014):

Veterans-

Bryant Turner (6'2 275 26) is entering his 4th season as a Blue Bomber and CFLer.  Zach Anderson (6'3 280 24) is entering his 2nd season as a Blue Bomber and CFLer.

Turner and Anderson are mainstays for the Bombers in the middle of the defensive line.  They are remarkably similar as smaller tackles who both lean towards pass-rushing more than run stopping.  Turner and Anderson can make some spectacular plays against the run when they win plays off the snap.  If they lose off the snap, the ball carrier is into the 2nd level immediately.  They are inconsistent against the run.  

This is a trade-off that the previous regime (and Tim Burke's defensive scheme in particular) preferred, playing with two three-technique (most effective in the outside gap of the guards) tackles rather having one three-technique and a nose tackle (inside gap of the guards). Anderson is young and he could develop into more of a nose tackle.

This raises two questions for training camp.  Does this preference for pass rush carry forward into the Walters-O'Shea-Etcheverry regime?  And, if it doesn't, are Turner and Anderson redundant?

Etcheverry is tough to read.  He doesn't have a lot of tendencies when it comes to lining guys up in certain spots snap after snap.  Generally he schemes to fit talent in, rather than fit talent into his scheme. Etcheverry likes to show different looks, and likes versatile players. Bryant Turner can line up anywhere on the defensive line and rush the passer.  Seems like a good fit.  Anderson is also a talented, high motor guy with some versatility.  I think we'll see some interesting fronts utilizing the abilities of Turner and Anderson.

Jason Vega (6'4 260 27) returns to the Blue Bombers after spending the 2013 season in the NFL.  Vega totaled 12 sacks in 26 games with the Blue Bombers in 2011 and 2012.  

Vega is a multi-dimensional player...something you don't see a lot along the highly specialized defensive line on both sides of the border.  He is a solid player who does his job and a little extra, against both the pass and the run.

Vega is an excellent pass rusher with multiple moves and a high motor. Unlike other "pass rush specialists," Vega is not out of the play if he doesn't beat the tackle around the edge off the snap or if he gets into a handfight.  Vega is an effective pass rusher from both the edge and from a three-technique position (outside gap of the guard).  This ability allowed the Blue Bombers to throw pure pass rushing fronts out against obvious passing downs in Vega's previous stint in Blue and Gold.

Vega will start at defensive end, and rarely leave the field.



Greg Peach (6'3 255 27) is entering his 6th CFL season, 2nd as a Blue Bomber.

Peach is Vega-lite.  He's not particularly great at any aspect of pass rushing, but he has a decent motor, he plays intelligent in terms of gap control, but he takes stupid penalties.  Like Vega, Peach is a versatile player.  He can play away from the line of scrimmage and drop into a zone or cover a running back coming out of the backfield.  Maybe this versatility will make him useful in an Etcheverry defense, but we can do a lot better in terms of pass rushers.



Ryan Lucas (6'6 280 29) and Jake Thomas (6'2 275 23) are both entering their 3rd year as a Blue Bomber.  They are the non-import contingent on the defensive line.

Both Lucas and Thomas are strictly interior defensive linemen.  They are both best described as "depth players."  Neither one is quite good enough to start, neither one is a threat to generate a consistent pass rush.  They are both at the level of coming in for 15-20 snaps a game, holding a gap, not having any major screw-ups and playing a role on special teams.

Lucas and Thomas should be able to take enough snaps on defense to form a 2nd NI starter on defense along with some snaps taken at LB and DB by other NI defenders.

Prospects-

The Bombers currently have two young defensive end prospects under contract:

JD Griggs (6'5 260 23) and Michael McAdoo (6'7 245 24).

We got to see them both in limited action at the end of the 2013 season.  They are both Alex Hall look-a-likes, tall and long.  McAdoo was a highly rated NFL prospect before running into some eligibility issues at North Carolina and then rupturing his achilles while a member of the Baltimore Ravens.  Griggs was right out of college in 2013, with a brief stop in the camp of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Big Picture-

The starting defensive line as of today (Feb 27) would look something like this:

DE Vega
DT Turner
DT Anderson
DE Peach/McAdoo/Griggs

The defensive line is a position of strength for the Blue Bombers, and there is really only have one spot up for grabs at rush end.  There is a strong possibility that the Bombers will use a DI spot on a third defensive end.

In terms of additions before training camp, another interior lineman, another edge rusher or two are likely, along with the potential release of Greg Peach before training camp as he is somewhat redundant with Vega back in the fold.  Another non-import or two would be nice to battle Lucas and Thomas for a roster spot.  Drafting Evan Gill with the 2nd overall pick and having him in training camp would change this picture quite a bit. 

Mid-February Roster Analysis: Winnipeg Blue Bombers Offensive Line

Part 3 of 6...the most maligned group of "athletes" in Winnipeg, the Blue Bombers offensive line.

The Blue Bombers currently have 11 OL under contract, 7 non-imports and 4 imports.  

Here's what we ended last season with:

LT January
LG GREAVES
C SORENSEN (signed with Edmonton)
RG MORLEY
RT Jarvis Jones

First, we'll take a look at each guy individually, then the group.

The Veterans-

Steve Morley (6'7 325 33) entering his 6th season as a Blue Bomber, 9th as a CFLer, the first overall pick of the 2003 CFL Draft.  

Morley started at tackle in his first season as a Bomber (2009), but has made his living at right guard since 2010.  Morley was a decent tackle and it took him a long time to become a good CFL guard, something he's still struggling to be over 18 games.  In my opinion, his best stretch as a guard for the Blue Bombers was the 2nd half of the 2011 season, when Chris Garrett took over at RB and the Blue Bombers committed to actually having some remnant of a power run game.

The more aggressive Morley plays, the better he plays.  He has the ability to be a very good CFL offensive lineman, and has shown that ability in spurts.  Morley tends to play more aggressive (better!), including in pass blocking, when the Blue Bombers establish the run. Why?  Couple reasons.  First, he's physically engaged in the game. Second, teams aren't going to pin their ears back and blitz like crazy because they are playing against a team that just might run the ball. This is a typical trait of nearly all offensive linemen, not just a Morley thing.  If you don't know this by now, you will hear me say it a lot, the simplest way to improve your OL play as a team is to commit to establishing the run.  This doesn't mean you run the ball 50 times a game, it means you run a more balanced offence, ie 60/40 pass run, and don't pull a Crowton and abandon the run if your first two carries are not successful.

Morley struggles in pass blocking.  He plays guard like a tackle (or a guard who isn't that great), which is to say that he almost always retreats off the snap and pops high out of his stance, giving up leverage.  A tackle has more leeway to give up ground, because the edge rusher is taking a long route as long as the tackle doesn't get beat inside.  A tackle can lose 5 yards and still form a nice pocket, and this is in fact basic pass protection technique, for a tackle to keep the rusher in front of him and widen the rush lane (route to the QB) rather than quickly engaging him at the line of scrimmage.  Guards and centres need to get a lick on rushers coming through their gaps ASAP.  They don't necessarily want to fully engage a rusher, because then the rusher can make a quick move and slip into the pocket clean, but they want to get a body on them and start the battle.  If you are giving up ground before you even engage the rusher, and then continue to get pushed into the pocket...bad, really bad for your QB and passing game.  

The play at 3:18 of this Bomber-Argo video perfectly illustrates bad Morley.  The line of scrimmage is the Argo 53.  Morley is playing right guard.  Pause at 3:20.  Notice the left guard (Greaves) and the centre (Sorensen).  They stay low, pretty even with the LOS before making initial contact with any rusher and their hips remain facing the Argo endzone.  Morley is immediately scrambling backwards, high out of his stance with his hips turned towards the sideline (big no-no) and chases an Argo end who is already being blocked by Jarvis Jones, giving up his inside gap (the biggest no-no).  The Argos are only rushing 3, which probably saved Max Hall`s life, if a guy like Shane Horton is coming on a delayed blitz and Morley turns to chase a defensive end back 10 yards, KA-BOOM!  Greaves and Sorensen are perfect off the snap, but a little nonchalant in supporting January against the 3 man rush (while Morley is too eager to support Jones), Greaves finishes the play poorly with a half-assed hip check, forcing Hall to flee the pocket (although he had a lot of steamboats).

There`s one ongoing question with Morley...can he play a full season at his full potential?  If he can, we should have no major issues at right guard, but he hasn't done it yet at 33.

Chris Greaves (6'5 300 27) is heading into his 5th season as a Blue Bomber and CFLer, his 3rd as a starting guard.

Greaves is one of the most athletic offensive linemen in the league. He's the anti-Kabongo.  Greaves is one of the few linemen in the league who is as quick as the guys he is blocking.  He is not the strongest relative to many of the interior DL he faces as a guard, so he needs to battle and use his agility to be successful.  He's not going to drive a DL 5 yards downfield, he needs to get a good fire out of his stance and turn the DL to open up a gap in zone run blocking and hopefully move up to the next level (LB/HB) with a little help from his friends at tackle or centre.  Greaves is very quick out of his stance in run blocking, especially when he puts a hand down into a 3 point stance, athlete.  

Greaves is a steady pass blocker.  He's patient, he holds his inside gap first and foremost, he keeps his butt and hips low facing the endzone and battles.  As a guard, he engages rushers at the line of scrimmage as he should to help form a pocket.  Greaves is very good at getting his hands inside and fending off initial pass rushing moves.  As an interior OL, if you win or tie the initial 3 steps off the snap, you've won the play (just hope Morley isn't chasing wildly after Buzz and Boomer on the other side of the formation, leaving his gap wide-open).  Greaves will be the starting left guard, no doubt about it.

Glenn January (6'6 300 31) is heading into his 6th season as a Blue Bomber and 8th season in the CFL.  

Take everything I said about Greaves and transfer it to the tackle position, that's January.  As a tackle, his main job in pass protection to widen the pass rush lane to the QB for the edge rushers while making sure he doesn't lose his inside gap to that edge rusher or a blitz. January does his job.  He struggled with consistency in his early years with the Bombers, but has developed into a very steady import OT and clearly one of the team leaders.  He's in his prime and he's one of the best in the league, probably would get Most Outstanding Lineman hype if he played on a better team.  January will be starting at left tackle.

Jarvis Jones (6'7 300 26) is heading into his 2nd season as Blue Bomber and CFLer.  Joined the Bombers on September 17, and started at left tackle in the game 3 days later.  

Jones was impressive.  He immediately got under Marcus Howard's skin in that first game with his tenacity, ability to keep Howard from getting around the edge (for the first 3 quarters anyways) and willingness to play through the whistle.  Ended his first drive as a Blue Bomber by driving Howard 5 yards deep into the endzone on a Bomber 1 yard TD.  Jones showed very good raw ability to take on edge rushers, but struggled at times with inside moves, spins in particular and blitzes through his inside gap.  I expect Jones to have the inside track on being the starting right tackle for the Blue Bombers in 2014, barring any ratio issues.   

Shannon Boatman...please don't bring him to training camp.

Chris Kowalczuk (6'5 305 29) the only Bomber OL under contract currently who has snapped a football in a CFL game.  

Unfortunately, that really means nothing.  He started the 2012 season as the Bombers centre and immediately lost the job after one game to Justin Sorensen, who won't be joining John Bonk in the Blue Bomber hall of fame to put it mildly.  Kowalczuk is entering his 5th season as a Bomber and has only played a handful of games.  He hasn't seen enough meaningful action to say anything definitive.  I thought he played ok as a guard in his start against Edmonton in 2013, after the first drive I was no longer concerned for Max Hall's life, but otherwise he barely saw the field.  Hard to know where he stands against the other spare part OL the Bombers have, that he's still here after 5 years and few contributions on gamedays is odd.

The Prospects-

Paul Swiston (6'8 325 25) is heading into his 4th season as a Blue Bomber and CFLer.  

Swiston has a lot of similarities with Morley.  He's a natural tackle. He's being moved inside to play guard.  It's an awkward transition. Based on what we've seen of Swiston as a guard, which isn't a whole lot in terms of game action, he's good in pass protection, he engages at the line of scrimmage, you don't have to worry about your quarterback getting killed when Swiston is playing, which is always a good starting point.  

He needs to work on getting his hands inside to control rushers and battle against inside pass rushing moves.  Based on his couple of 2013 starts, he tends to lean to his outside gap too quickly, leaving him prone to a quick inside move by the guy he's blocking or a delayed LB blitz. It's a classic lock on one block instead of focusing on blocking your gaps from the inside out, much like Jarvis Jones at the tackle spot.  You never want to give that direct route into the pocket.  

As a guard in a tackles body, he's always going to struggle to get leverage inside, especially in run blocking.  On the bright side, Swiston is 25 and has 3 seasons in.  He is still raw, and his development is stalling due to injury, problems which date back to his CIS career, causing his drop into the 4th round. Will he take the next step and become a viable starting CFL OL?


Patrick Neufeld (6'5 295 25) is entering his first season as a Blue Bomber, 4th in the CFL as the Blue Bombers top OL acquisition heading into 2014.  

Neufeld only started one game in his aborted return from a broken fibula suffered in the 2013 preseason.  That game was the Banjo Bowl. Neufeld started at right guard.  Zach Anderson absolutely mauled him all afternoon, just beat him up physically.  There's not much technique to look at, he spent half the game on his can, with Anderson getting free runs at Durant.  Neufeld didn't play again in 2013, apparently reinjured his leg and was traded to the Blue Bombers before the end of the season.  

In 2012, he started 13 games for the Roughriders at right tackle.  The full game I watched of Neufeld at tackle was the 2012 West Semi-Final against Calgary.  Neufeld is matched up against Charleston Hughes and Cordarro Law, two of the better pass rushers in recent CFL history. Neufeld held his own in that game, but looked more like a speedbump than a guy you'd want starting 18 games at tackle.  Hughes and Law did get a reasonable amount of pressure but they never got a free run at Durant.  

It became pretty clear that Hughes was taking a wide first move and coming quickly inside on Neufeld to break into the pocket, Neufeld didn't really have an answer for that.  Sometimes he was able to get a shot on Hughes as he drove through into the pocket, but at that point Neufeld's hips were already turned to the sideline and he had no hope of blocking Hughes.   This forced Durant to leave the pocket consistently.  In that situation, when a guy literally has no hope of contesting a rusher with such strong moves, you just want to make the rusher take the longest path to the quarterback possible.  Hold your inside gap and kickstep to widen the rush lane as much as possible without letting the rush end make a quick and easy inside move.  

The Riders supported Neufeld quite often with a tight end or running back joining him on his outside gap.  Something I really didn't like from him in that game was that he was getting locked on the outside rusher rather than minding his inside gap first, this was even happening when he had blocking support from a tight end/receiver or running back on his outside gap.  Knowing that he had support, if anything Neufeld should have cheated inside.  Calgary did have some success blitzing LB's through Neufeld's inside gap, along with Neufeld's chasing Hughes making his rips and spins to the inside more effective.  

The Riders offence (they did score 30 points) started going when they began dropping off screen passes behind the rush and letting Sheets go.  They only ran a handful of designed running plays, and other times Durant was just running for his life.

Neufeld is a natural tackle and has not shown to be even passable as a guard...yet.  That leads to two big questions; first, will Neufeld show well enough to beat Jarvis Jones out for the starting right tackle spot?  Second, if he doesn't win the right tackle spot, can he be a useful player for the Blue Bombers at another position (maybe a conversion to centre?)?

Also, is his fibula back in one piece?

Tyson Pencer (6'7 300 25) is heading into his 3rd season as a Blue Bomber and CFLer, the 3rd overall pick in the 2012 CFL Draft.  

In watching his first couple starts, Pencer actively engages pass rushers, and he was getting a good surge off the line in run blocking, even out of a 2 point stance.  Like most of the younger OL I've talked about in this post, he shows a tendency to lock on blocking one rusher and not always minding the concept of making a pocket by protecting inside to outside, giving up only the widest and most indirect rush lanes. This plays right into a lot of the stunts and blitzes that defense's run, and why patience is a virtue for offensive linemen.   Pencer actually played most of his first start at right tackle after Glenn January left due to injury, and he looked quite comfortable.  He did get beat off the edge a few times due to being overaggressive and attempting to engage the defensive end too early off the snap inside of getting a couple kick steps in and widening the rush lane a bit first to match the speed of the defensive end.   That is somewhat understandable given that he had been practicing as a guard and preparing to start that game as a guard.

Pencer certainly has the aggression and the athleticism necessary to be a CFL OL.  Will he develop the physical and mental technique? Getting to see Pencer play last season was encouraging, because he is not that far away from being a valuable player, but he does need experience and he needs to take advantage of the opportunity.   It is time for Walters and the coaching staff to decide which position they want Pencer to play.  In my opinion he could be either a tackle or guard, but moving him back and forth will only hurt his development.


Terriss Paliwoda (6'4 300 30) has spent time on the practice roster with the Eskimos (2007), Argos (2013) and Bombers (2013), he is a non-import.  Have no insight into his game.  I'm hoping he can play centre....

Dan Knapp (6'5 305 25) started a game at right tackle in his first week as a Blue Bomber, just like Jarvis Jones, 3 days after he joined the Blue Bombers.  As an import he's in tough to beat out January or Jones for a job.  I'll spot him Boatman.

The Big Picture-

3 out of 5 positions are up for grabs: centre, right guard and right tackle.

Here is how the OL stacks up as of February 20 (NON-IMPORT):

LT- January
LG- GREAVES 
C- KOWALCZUK
RG- MORLEY, PENCER, SWISTON
RT- Jones, NEUFELD, Knapp


I've omitted Boatman because bringing him up for training camp would defy logic.  Also omitted Paliwoda because I have no idea where the Bombers see him fitting in.  He played guard at the University of Alberta.  Is he a candidate to play centre?

Based on our current depth chart, we need a centre for sure.  Will someone currently on the roster convert to centre?  Morley? Neufeld?  Will the Bombers draft a centre, and will that centre make the immediate jump into the starting lineup?  

Players have converted later in their career from other positions to centre.  Two notable recent examples for the Bombers are Moe Elewonibi and Obby Khan, who both started their CFL careers as tackles.  Is it safe to assume that someone can do this easily?  No. 

For all we know, the process has already begun and whoever they chose to be the convert has been working on snapping the ball etc. This is a very important issue for this team which must be addressed before training camp.  The centre handles the ball on every offensive play.  That guy doesn't get the ball clean to the QB on 10% of the plays, that's 6-7 fumbles in a game.  The centre is absolutely crucial.

The battle for right guard should be one to watch.  The Bombers have been trying to replace Steve Morley since mid-2012, and no one has stepped up to take the job.  Will Pencer or Swiston take it this season?

The battle at right tackle will be more about the ratio than anything else. If they both had the same passport, there would be no contest between Neufeld and Jarvis Jones, Jones wins easily.  But, if the Blue Bombers need to start 4 non-imports on the offensive line to satisfy the ratio, it won't be a contest either, Neufeld wins by default.


In part 4 we will shift to the defensive side of the ball and look at the defensive line.

Mid-February Roster Analysis: Winnipeg Blue Bombers Running Backs and Receivers

This is the 2nd post in our 6 part series analyzing the Blue Bombers roster as of mid-February.  Our focus in this post, running backs and receivers.

Players under Contract (as of February 18, 2014):

59 (24 non-imports, 35 imports)
16 open roster spots (75 max in off-season, 68 plus non-counters can be brought to training camp).

2014 Draft Picks:

Round          Overall
1                   2
3                   20
3                   26
4                   29
6                   47
6                   48
7                   56

Running Backs:

Not much to discuss here...might have to revisit this one.

Currently the Bombers have 3 non-imports under contract.

Carl Volny (5'10 210 26) is heading into his 4th season as a Blue Bomber, and is the only tailback currently under contract.  He has seen limited action on offence in his career, 37 carries for 160 yards (4.3 average) and 6 receptions for 40 yards.  Volny is a depth player, and not a special teams demon.  Depending on what happens in training camp and how coach Mike O'Shea deploys his DI spots, Volny could find himself on the outside looking in on the 42 man game roster.  Volny is a steady zone runner, gets upfield but is unlikely to break loose for big gains, he's a good pass blocker and has good hands out of the backfield.  He has a tendency to be a little loose when it comes to carrying the ball.  For those of you dreaming of a ratio-breaking NI tailback...keep dreaming.  Volny's upside is Calvin McCarty...but he needs to stay healthy and get an opportunity to fill that role.

Michel-Pierre Pontbriand (6'1 235 31) is also heading into his 4th season as a Blue Bomber.  He has proven to be a useful blocker from both the fullback and tight end positions, and shown some hands when given the opportunity to be a receiver from the backfield (see 2:22). Pontbriand is a special teams captain, and likely to make fast friends with coach O'Shea given his outstanding special teams play.  He's as much of lock for the roster as anyone can be in the middle of February.

Carl Fitzgerald (6'5 240 24) is heading into his second season as a Blue Bomber after being selected by the Blue Bombers in the 3rd round 20th overall in the 2013 CFL Draft.  Fitzgerald caught one pass last season, and made two tackles on interception/fumble returns.  Kind of summarizes the 2013 Blue Bomber season, doesn't it?  Fitzgerald played wide receiver at St. Mary's and is early into his conversion to being a CFL tight end.  We anticipate that he will continue to grow and be a fixture on the Blue Bomber 42 man game roster in 2014, mostly because there aren't many threats to him available in the upcoming draft, and the REDBLACKS are hoarding all the good tight ends (jab #2).

Receivers:

The Incumbents-

Clarence Denmark (5'10 190 28) is heading into his 4th season as a Blue Bomber.  Denmark made the team in 2011, spent one game inactive, got on the active roster due to a Greg Carr injury and has been a fixture for the Blue Bombers ever since.  From there, both the Blue Bomber offence and Denmark have been inconsistent.  Gary Crowton complained that Denmark did not understand how to use the waggle to create separation and stuck Denmark out at field wide receiver.  

In the first half of 2013, Denmark averaged 2 catches for 30 yards per game, mirroring the end of the 2012 season when Crowton took full control of the offence following the firing of Paul Lapolice.  In Denmark's career games not called by Crowton (GNCBC, our first advanced stat?!?), Denmark has averaged 4 catches for 51 yards, which equals a season of 72 catches for 922 yards.  

Those numbers are an accurate representation of Denmark's abilities to this point in his career in my opinion.  He has proven that he is a solid third option in a CFL offence, and an effective tendency breaker with the odd end around/screen pass.  Denmark has highlight-reel hands (literally, but so does Brock Ralph), is effective throughout the route tree and in multiple positions, he can produce from anywhere except from a spot starting 30 yards away from his weak-armed QB (:( Crowton).  

In the 2nd half of 2013 primarily as a slotback, Denmark posted numbers that would project to 81 catches 1242 yards over 18 games as a primary target in Marcel Bellefeuille's offence.  Can Denmark sustain that kind of production as a 2nd option to Nick Moore in 2014?

Cory Watson (6'3 215 30) enters his 5th season as a Blue Bomber after being selected in the 2nd round 9th overall of the 2010 CFL Draft. Watson had a rough start to his career, struggling to find a role in the offence and struggling with his hands.  He was immediately a special teams standout, and although he was doubted by some intelligent people (yours truly ;), Watson has firmly established himself as a top non-import receiver in the CFL.  

The challenge for Watson has been staying healthy enough to capitalize on his abilities and contribute to team success.  As a receiver, Watson can do it all.  He's a big target, the type who can haul down a 40 yard prayer in tight coverage, take a screen pass and do this, go over the middle and make a catch in a tight spot for a first down like this.  His ability to get YAC yards and play a physical game (including run and pass blocking) is his most useful asset, he is the guy who can turn a 4 yard catch into a first down on 2nd and 10.  It could also be his downfall, as Watson has taken more than his share of brutal hits at a stationary target for terrible QB's while standing prone in the middle of the field.  

Watson is a lock as one of Drew Willy's top targets, can he finally play a full season and be a 1000 yard receiver for the Blue Bombers in 2014?

Rory Kohlert (6'2 215 26) is entering his 3rd season as a Blue Bomber and CFLer.  Kohlert has proven himself as an excellent route runner with solid hands.  He's the type who thrives on finding the soft spot in the coverage or running underneath a clearing route, making the grab and moving the chains.  He's not going to wow you with anything but consistency and reliability.  Kohlert took a huge step forward in 2013 and basically stole his spot on the field from two first round picks who were moved to other Western division clubs in 2014.  

The only questions on Kohlert are, where will he line up in our offence in 2014?  And, will Kohlert continue to evolve beyond being an excellent 3rd/4th option in the offence?


Mike Sims-Walker (6'2 215 29) is entering (?) his 2nd season as a Blue Bomber.  Struggled to get on the roster after arriving in a 2013 mid-season airlift, finally got a shot, had an amazing game (8 catches 137 yards) and showed what he can do as a deep threat at WR, re-injured his knee, done for the season.  It has been reported by Kirk Penton of the Winnipeg Sun that Sims-Walker is likely done as a professional football player, although he is still under contract to the Blue Bombers.

Aaron Kelly (6'5 195 28) is entering his 2nd season as a Blue Bomber, 4th in the CFL.  In 3 CFL seasons, Kelly has played in 24 games.  He's a lanky guy with good hands.  Coaches see that, they daydream for a couple seconds, wipe up some drool, see the guy against live competition, and are disappointed.  Kelly is a pure deep threat, an inconsistent one-trick pony.  He's not going to make a big impact running routes into the field because he struggles to get leverage in traffic and his hands are average, but he'll make a big play every couple games on a deep toss to the sideline.  Quite frankly, Kelly should be in no CFL team's plans outside of Ottawa (offer him to Desjardins for the 1st overall pick? ;) as more than an injury replacement.

The New Guys-

Nick Moore (6'2 195 28) is the Bombers prized free agent signing of 2014.  Moore has spent the past 3 seasons with the BC Lions joining their practice roster in October 2010 after spending the 2009 season and part of the 2010 season on the practice rosters of the Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots and St. Louis Rams.  Moore dressed for 5 games in 2011, 8 in 2012, becoming a key target for Travis Lulay down the stretch in 2012.  Moore expanded his role in 2013 with the departure of Geroy Simon, primarily played in the slot and was the Lions leading receiver.  

Nick Moore is a receiver more than an athlete, by that I mean that he excels at route running, how to get the separation he needs through his own route or by settling underneath clearing routes run by his teammates, something he'll do a lot as the Blue Bombers top target. When you watch BC's games from 2013, you see Nick Moore wide-open a lot, not because BC's other receivers were so dangerous that everyone was ignoring Nick Moore, but because Nick Moore is a very good receiver.  Another strength of Moore's game is his effective use of his body in tight coverage to shield the defender from the ball and make the play.  Moore has excellent hands, the body awareness to go up and get passes, as well as hit the turf to grab passes and make grabs while tight-roping the sideline.  While he makes the spectacular grab, he has also shown a tendency as a Lion to make the spectacular drop on routine plays.   

Where will Moore line up as a Blue Bomber?  Will he play slot, or will he play the boundary wide receiver spot vacated by Chris Matthews?

Jordan Brescacin (6'3 185 25) was the leading receiver in CIS football in 2012, posting 68 catches 979 yards and 8 touchdowns in 8 games, showing a more well-rounded game as opposed to his early CIS years as primarily a deep threat.  He broke Andy Fantuz single season and career records for receptions in the OUA...yet he went undrafted in 2012 behind the likes of Ismael Bamba, Johnny Aprile and/or Giovanni Aprile, whichever one was the receiver.  As we've seen recently with undrafted guys like Kohlert vs high draft picks like Etienne and Poblah, that doesn't matter a whole lot when it comes to being a productive CFL player.  

Brescacin posted a 4.67 40 with an good 10 yard split of 1.60, so he's not slow off the line.  His vertical was 34.5' which shows that he isn't a great athlete, but he has some explosion from his core and lower body. His shuttle was 4.20, average for a receiver (4.10 under is good), his cone time was 4.88, again low average, each of these drills test agility. So...compared to pro receivers, Brescacin tests low athletically, can he transfer some of that CIS production to the pros and be a useful player for the Bombers? 

Julian Feoli-Gudino (6'1 205 27) is entering his 3rd CFL season, first as a Blue Bomber.  JFG was a 5 year starter at Laval, 2nd all-time in CIS history with 238 catches, two-time All-Canadian.  Can't tell you a whole lot about his qualities as a pro receiver, because he has rarely seen the field on offence with the Argos, he has 2 CFL catches, and outside of the CIS bowl games and Vanier Cup, I only see the odd QUFC on Radio-Canada here in Winnipeg.  JFG suffered a career-threatening broken leg and did not participate in the combine in 2011 and was unable to play football in 2012, yet was still drafted by the Argos in 2011, making one think that he put some things CFL personnel guys like on tape with Laval.  He mostly played special teams for the Argos, stuck for 2 seasons and landed with his former special teams coach in Winnipeg for the 2014 season.  Is JFG in the mix for the Bombers as a non-import receiver, or is he here to play special teams?


Taylor Renaud (6'2 200 26) is entering his 1st CFL season.  He attended training camp with the Bombers in 2013.  Renaud was the top AUS receiver in his last two seasons with Acadia, following an impressive high school career at St. Paul's in Winnipeg.  He participated in the Quebec City regional combine in 2013, posting a 4.83 40, 4.20 shuttle and 34" vertical, all below average among CFL receivers.  Renaud has above average hands and is quick enough to play in the CFL.  His ceiling is not very high, likely a field wideout and special teamer.  

Import Prospects-

Quentin Sims (6'3 210 23) broke Ephraim Hill's Ohio Valley Conference single-season TD record as a senior with 16 touchdowns for the University of Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks.  Transferred from Georgia Tech.  Caught two TD passes from Tim Tebow in the final week of the NFL preseason 2013.  4.62 40, profiles as a big target, deep threat, fade, back shoulder route type likely to compete for the boundary WR spot. Video

Antonio Robinson (6'1 195 28) has bounced around pro football for much of the 2010's.  Couple years on the Packers practice squad, few games in Omaha (with Bomber OC Marcel Bellefeuille), few games with New Orleans in Arena ball.  Another guy who profiles as a deep threat, led FCS (NCAA D1-AA) in yards per catch in 2008 (25.1 ypc), kick returner 19.6 yards per return.  Posted a 4.52 40 at his pro day (2010) and a 4.26 shuttle, which suggests he's got straightaway speed with average agility.

Current Depth Chart-

RB- ?..., VOLNY

FB/TE- PONTBRIAND, FITZGERALD

WR boundary- *Moore, Sims

SB- WATSON, FEOLI-GUDINO

SB- *KOHLERT, BRESCACIN

SB- *Denmark 

WR field- Kelly, Robinson, RENAUD

*Guys who could play inside or outside

NON-IMPORTS

Looking Ahead-

Clearly the Bombers will be adding 3-4 import tailbacks to the training camp roster.  We'll discuss those guys when they sign.  Will Ford remains a possibility to re-sign and compete for the job if he gets his salary expectations into the reasonable range.  Don't see Chad Simpson returning to Winnipeg, we'll be nice like Kyle Walters and say due to injury.

The two WR spots are huge question marks.  We have good slot receivers of both nationalities.  Kohlert, Denmark and Moore have also played WR in the CFL.  I could see a scenario where Denmark and Moore sort of platoon between the boundary WR and a slot position as two of the top three targets for Bomber QB's.  My personal preference is to have that big target, fight for the ball down the flank type of boundary wide-out who can still run a hard dig or slant and make plays coming into the field as well as being a deep threat, like a Derick Armstrong, Greg Carr (when he wanted to), Chris Matthews (to a lesser extent).  Sims looks like that type of prospect.  To me, Kelly has already proven he's not up to the gig.

We currently have 4 NI receivers under contract, we're likely to start 2 (Watson, Kohlert).  That means we'll dress at least 3 NI receivers with Pontbriand/Fitzgerald substituting for a NI receiver when they enter the game on offence.  There is a golden opportunity here for guys like Feoli-Gudino, Brescacin and Renaud to earn a roster spot, based on their play as both receivers and special teamers.

I expect Kyle Walters will add 4-5 more receivers between import prospects and the draft/NI's before training camp, a couple of the imports being boundary WR types.

Mid-February Roster Analysis: Winnipeg Blue Bombers Quarterbacks

This post kicks off a 9 part series that will be known as the Mid-February Roster Analysis.  We'll start with our home team, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.  This one is going to be detailed, so we will look at it in 6 parts (QB, RB/REC, OL, DL, LB/DB, Special Teams) plus an overall assessment of the Bombers roster.

Players under Contract (as of February 17, 2014):

60 (24 non-imports, 36 imports)
15 open roster spots (75 max in off-season, 68 plus non-counters can be brought to training camp).

2014 Draft Picks:

Round          Overall
1                   2
3                   20
3                   26
4                   29
6                   47
6                   48
7                   56

Quarterbacks:

The New Guy in Town-

Drew Willy 27 years old 6'3 215

Vital numbers: 101-147 68.7% completion, 9 TD 5 INT for a 99.1 QB rating in 2 seasons as #2 QB for the Roughriders.  4 rushing touchdowns as short yardage QB.

The Incumbents-

Max Hall 28 years old 6'1 200

Vital numbers: 162-283 57.2% completion, 9 TD 10 INT for a 75.1 QB rating as a CFL rookie, on again off again starting QB for the Blue Bombers.

Justin Goltz 26 years old 6'5 215

Vital numbers: 88-160 55% completion, 3 TD 7 INT for a 61 QB rating in 4 seasons with the Blue Bombers.  9 rushing touchdowns as short yardage QB.

Analysis:

The Blue Bombers have 3 quarterbacks under contract for the 2014 season currently.  The stats very simply indicate where each of these QB's are, and give us enough of a sample to definitively rank them.  

Drew Willy is (arguably, he does have more seasons in the league than Hall) the least experienced CFL quarterback on the Blue Bomber roster, yet he is clearly the best. Willy has shown an ability to make all throws necessary for a CFL QB.  The one area where his game needs to improve is in making pre-snap reads and good quick throws from the pocket, he does have a tendency to hold the ball and statue in the pocket as many inexperienced QB's do.  Willy has shown a strong ability to make throws on the move and move the chains with his legs in his limited CFL career, and compares favourably to Mike Reilly (2013's free agent prize).  Is he ready to take the reins as a CFL starting QB?   

Max Hall had some good games, he had some disastrous games as a CFL rookie.  Most QB's don't hit the field as rookies in the CFL.  Willy and Hall both did, Willy more successfully.  Hall showed a good ability to read a defense after the snap and find the open man.  He didn't show a great ability to get the ball to that open man.  Hall's weak arm, lack of a quick release and tendency to throw at static targets will limit his ability to be an effective starting quarterback.  With more experience, I believe he could top out at a 60% passer with a rating in the 85 range.  Average, but not a bad option as a backup QB.  Is Hall willing to stick around in Canada as a backup beyond 2014 or will he retire to pursue his coaching career at BYU?   

Justin Goltz has been with the Bombers since the last 2 weeks of 2010 when the Bombers had to scramble across North America to fill their QB roster with Pierce, Jyles and Brink all injured.  His stats say it all.  Goltz is not a good passer to put it mildly.  His arm strength is average, his release is slow by CFL standards.  He is a great running QB, and an effective short-yardage specialist.  At this point it seems highly unlikely that he will develop into much more, but as a backup QB, having a guy who can threaten defenses with his legs and maybe make a few throws is not terrible.  Given the outright, passive aggressive hatred the former coaching staff, including the current offensive co-ordinator, developed for Goltz in the 2013 (see Jason Boltus as short-yardage QB), it is somewhat surprising that he is still on the Blue Bombers roster.  Will he make it to training camp?  

Hall and Goltz (not an 80's rock R&B fusion duo) did have to deal with the Crowton offence that was not suited to the CFL game and ultimately the implementation of a more traditional attack by Marcel Bellefeuille mid-season. 2013 did not provide the ideal circumstances for either developing a CFL QB or evaluating one in Winnipeg.   

There has been much discussion and gnashing of teeth when it comes to the Blue Bombers quarterbacking. First, the Zach Collaros sweepstakes.  He goes to Hamilton, Bombers lose out.  Then, due to Collaros joining the Tabbies, the Henry Burris sweepstakes are on, Bombers lose out, the REDBLACKS hand Hank a million dollar contract and alienate Kevin Glenn in the process.  

The last guy available...Drew Willy.  The Bombers make the move to acquire his rights, get him signed before he hits the free agent market and the puns ensue.  

Is it safe to assume that the Bombers landed their 3rd choice of the high profile QB's with at least some CFL experience this off-season?

I don't believe so.  I believe that the Bombers were involved in the earlier sweepstakes because their ideal goal was to acquire at least 2 experienced CFL quarterbacks this off-season, and not just any experienced CFL quarterbacks, ones that have had at least some success in the league.  In that scenario, Willy was always in play for the Blue Bombers, whether or not they acquired Collaros or Burris.

As of today, Willy is the clear starter for the Blue Bombers.  This was announced emphatically by head coach Mike O'Shea at the press conference introducing Willy to Winnipeg.  

However, there is still a lot of work to be done by Kyle Walters on the Bombers QB front.  Kevin Glenn is on the trading block.  Are the Bombers interested?  Acquiring Glenn would fulfill the goal of adding 2 CFL QB's with experience.  It would also create an instant quarterback controversy in Winnipeg and return Glenn to a city that has already tired of his painfully hopeful, yet mediocre quarterbacking once before following the 2008 seasons.

I believe that the Bombers will start the 2014 season with Willy starting, Hall as his insurance and a couple fresh prospects at 3rd and 4th string (practice roster/4 man reserve).

Welcome to Second and 10

This is the inaugural post of the Second and 10 blog.  

Unlike another 2014 addition to the Canadian football landscape, we won't be playing all of our exhibition games on the road, taking a bye in week 1, signing an overrated 39 year old quarterback and playing our inaugural game in Winnipeg.  Just the first of many jabs at the REDBLACKS (whoa, calm down).

The purpose of this blog is to take a deeper look at the CFL, and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers specifically.  In my experience as a CFL fan, and on CFL fan message boards, I have learned that there is a demand for longform analysis beyond what is provided by the great people who broadcast CFL games and the people who "cover the beat" of CFL teams.  This blog will attempt to feed that demand.  Basic analysis will be provided in a different way, but we will also try to go into further depth on how teams build their rosters, and how good is that right tackle anyways?  Using extended analysis and some advanced statistics (yes, Moneyball is coming to football) we'll provide some context to the game we love.

Why 2nd and 10?  2nd and 10 is what offences try to avoid.  Good offences do that.  The Bombers have struggled with this...clearly!  We all know and love the 4 yard pass to a guy standing still with his back the the first down line.  The goal of this blog is to move the chains :p.

A great forum to discuss the Blue Bombers can be found at Morning Big Blue.

Feel free to drop comments on the blog posts, discussion is encouraged!